Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Russia —
It came out today from The Insider – Russian journalists of some reputation. theins.ru/…
I’ll keep my comments very short on this – what they say is truly mind blowing. What they are saying is that it is much worse for Russia than this war. Leaves them almost defenseless and Ukraine knows that very well – part of their reckoning for sure.
Strong points –
For Russia, six months of war brought not only irreplaceable colossal losses losses in numbers, but also to a huge waste of arms and military equipment: guided missiles are already very scarce, shells for artillery and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year, and the state of military aviation rules out a large-scale air campaign. Due to the sanctions, Russia cannot continue the full industrial production of weapons and replenish its rapidly depleting stockpiles of weapons… The problem is that Soviet artillery shells could not long and from the summer of 2002, during the second Chechen campaign, the Russian army faces a shortage of 122 mm and 152 mm shells…
About these artillery guns (I mentioned it before you know it) –
Aand even assuming that Russian soldiers do not neglect the procedures for servicing barrels and other weapon mechanisms, and Russia has an unknown, but not infinite number of them in reserve (especially on weapons of storage depots), by at the end of 2022, the wear and tear of the artillery will lead to a drastic reduction in its effectiveness. In addition, the Russian army itself cautiously underline problems with the survivability of artillery pieces as early as 2020, as well as insufficient efficiency of the field maintenance and repair system for artillery pieces. (I don’t think they can touch the wide side of a barn now – so to speak)
They’re screwed in armored vehicles too –
And even if relatively fresh armored vehicles, even if not new, are imported from military units and storage depots, the lion’s share of them will have to be sent for repair by the end of 2022, provided they are not destroyed, if the high intensity of combat operations continues. And here it is worth repeating: the service life of a tank gun is also limited.
And their air force isn’t going to be much help –
Every machine, even at the beginning of the aggression, when the Ukrainian air defense was less organized than today, was manufacturing 1 or 2 combat sorties per day with a total duration of 1 to 1.5 hours. At the same time today, given losses and breakdowns, Russia is still able to dungeon about 400 combat aircraft of various types and about 360 helicopters (not all of them are attack helicopters) near the borders of Ukraine. However, Russia has not been able to conduct a large-scale air campaign since the beginning of the war, and now its capacity for such a campaign has only diminished.
They would still have the MLRS, I suppose, but for how long?
The writer is Pavel Luzin — I find him objective and he supports his work. Russia will run out of shells and their guns will be finished in a few months here. Their air force is afraid to venture into AA battery areas, clearly enough. As in – practically will not be able to continue the fight.
There are many reasons why I think Russia is losing this war – but if this article is anywhere near the real Russia is completely and utterly fucked up — as in, they could lose more than this war. I highly doubt Putin can even stay in power. This has really serious political consequences beyond this war. Think about Vlad’s little mischief in the world – right? Would Russia stick with China or “catch up” with the West? Could an even tougher SOB line replace Vlad? (although they won’t have much of an army – more of a toothless pariah state with lots of pissed off oligarchs)
Very interesting article considering where it is from – they know their culture. I’m sure those reporters are really pissed off at Putin, so consider that, but that doesn’t change the math here either. Russian artillery-based war dogma is completely ruined if that’s true, you know?
Some of you want to add tags or something — help you because I really don’t care. For me, it all comes down to the fact that we had a traitorous president. All.
The title I used is the title of the article by the way. I don’t think he’s exaggerating if that’s true. And it sure looks like it to me. So well thought out, so well written, so relevant.