KATERYNA TYSCHHENKO — WEDNESDAY AUGUST 31, 2022, 5:07 PM
Russia will face a severe shortage of shells, artillery and armored vehicles by the end of 2022.
Source: The insider, Russian non-governmental media.
Quotation: “Six months of war resulted not only in colossal irreparable losses in manpower, but also in enormous waste of weapons and military equipment for Russia. Guided missiles are already very scarce; shells for artillery and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year; and the state of military aviation rules out a full-scale air campaign.
Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue large-scale industrial arms production and replenish its rapidly depleting stockpiles.”
Details: According to The Insider’s analysis, during six months of aggression against Ukraine, Russia had to use at least 7 million shells, not counting losses at frontline storage sites resulting from Ukrainian strikes.
“If the intensity of the war remains at its current level, Moscow will face a tangible shortage of shells by the end of 2022 and will have to reduce its use of artillery in order to save ammunition,” the statement said. ‘article.
The author also points to the problem of the wear of artillery barrels. While the guides of multiple launch rocket systems have a long service life when properly maintained, the barrels of rifled artillery guns, as well as tank guns, wear out much faster.
As the author of the article writes, by the end of 2022, wear and tear on artillery will lead to a drastic reduction in its effectiveness.
Thus, the expected shortage of projectiles should coincide with the growing shortage of artillery pieces.
At the same time, “it is not self-evident” with the production of artillery and ammunition.
“Being cut off from the supply of Western equipment, spare parts and materials and simultaneously limited in human capital and labor productivity, Russian artillery and ammunition manufacturers will inevitably face production cuts rather than a stagnation for the foreseeable future,” the article said.
The Russian Federation also faces a growing shortage of long-range missiles. However, Russia masks this shortfall by bombarding Ukrainian cities with long-range artillery rockets and using S-300/S-400 air/missile defense systems to hit ground targets.
Russian industry is unlikely to have the potential to significantly increase rocket production, due not only to the embargo on the supply of equipment and personnel restrictions, but also to relatively low labor productivity. weak.
The Insider also mentions a possible shortage of armored vehicles. “Even taking into account the delivery of relatively new, albeit not new, armored vehicles from military units and storage depots, if the high intensity of hostilities continues, by the end of 2022 the share of the lion will have to be repaired. And that is assuming they are not destroyed,” according to the article.
The aviation situation “appears better at first sight”. Today, after taking into account losses and breakdowns, Russia is still able to keep about 400 combat aircraft of various types and about 360 helicopters near the borders, although not all of them are attack type.
“However, it turns out that Russia has not been able to conduct a large-scale air campaign since the beginning of the war, and now its capability for such a campaign has only diminished,” the report said. ‘article.