Heavy rains have arrived on the two remaining axes in Ukraine, Kherson in the south and Donbass in the east. And with that, don’t expect much territory to change hands. This Canadian volunteer from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion is fighting around Kherson.
The rain will make a figure on the morale of the Russians, already at the lowest.
This Canadian’s unit has night vision equipment, and they are doing their job under cover of darkness. No moon means it will be even darker. This is a great way to degrade Russian equipment and morale, and the weather will certainly help, but no territory changes hands. We see Ukraine’s main shortcomings in action – they now have the tools to defend themselves against Russian attacks, and they can certainly harass the enemy, but they lack the air and heavy armor to move on. the offensive against the entrenched Russians. .
I’m on the “armor is mostly obsolete” side, but that assumes air superiority and massive artillery. If you can’t take out enemy big guns from the air or take them out from afar, you have to charge them on the ground and you need armor to do that. NATO is certainly talking about it, but my God, there is nothing more to discuss. Just f’n do it. Western weapons have already killed and maimed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers while Vladimir Putin stands helpless. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin literally posted a photo of himself video chatting with Ukrainian special forces training in Mississippi on the Switchblade killer drone system. We are already rubbing their noses in our indirect involvement. Not much escalation left in sending more and bigger weapons at this point.
Meanwhile, in the east, guess what Russia did? Yeah. The same ineffective shit they have been Do. Drip attacks with one to two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) because they are unable to turn on the full tap and attack en masse.
The enemy tried to launch an attack in the direction of the settlements of Dovgenke and Dmytrivka with the forces of two battalion tactical groups, without success and returned to previously occupied positions.
Russia repeated this doomed and unnecessary approach in three other places. That’s what I just can’t understand – we know that Russia is massing its troops in the area, but if they really have planned a major all-out assault, why are they voluntarily supplying men and material to the woodchippers of Ukrainian woods todayinstead of resting these soldiers, maintaining their equipment, resupplying them and plan something that might actually work. Given Russia’s inability to deploy more than a small number of BTGs at any given time, is this the future of this front? A handful of daily “probes” until Russia burns all its BTGs or Ukraine runs out of anti-tank missiles, whichever comes first?
Next week’s rains will make a muddy mess of the battlefield, swallowing up any vehicle dumb enough to run off the road. Artillery will not be affected, however. A clever ambush would drop a few artillery shells at random in front of a convoy, wait for the vehicles to veer through those muddy fields in a panic, then usefully pull them out of Russian hands, intact, for requisition by the Ukrainian military. Tractors would be usefully ready.
Mud will make this kind of Ukrainian special forces raid even easier.
This is the sanitized and cropped version of these images. Others show a field strewn with Russian corpses. However, it is doubtful that entire BTG was eliminated. On paper, they have 10 tanks, 40 infantry fighting vehicles and 800-1,000 troops. On the other hand, given how undermanned these BTGs seem, maybe twenty corpses was really all that was left of this unit.
Be that as it may, if Russian armored vehicles are this vulnerable to guerrilla type attacks now, when they have at least some mobility, imagine when they are unable to move. Men on foot or in SUVs, equipped with night vision goggles in the dark, will have a huge advantage over blind Russians without air or direct artillery support.
As flashy as these special forces raids are, the Ukrainian artillery is even more impactful. Remember that Izyum’s supply lines run dangerously close to Ukrainian-held territory around Kharkiv, within easy artillery range.
That’s a lot of Ukrainian-held yellow territory on the western flank of this supply route to Izyum, allowing artillery to emplace and use both drone-guided and guided munitions precision to wreak havoc on these roads. Look what the artillery managed to do in the last 24 hours:
This report intercepted of a Russian officer in Izyum says it all: “Once again, I would like to highlight the very precise work of Ukrainian artillery and mortars. It is their value that is the main deterrent. 99% of our losses are the result of artillery work. There are no gunshot wounds. The same officer begs his superiors to stop “the Syrian experiment of traveling in dense, kilometer-long columns along the roads”.
Who wants to bet on anyone listening to this guy’s sage advice?
A telegram post from the commander of the Ukrainian forces to Kryvyi Rih says Ukraine has taken over “more than 15” villages and towns west of the Dnipro in this area north of Kherson. It also says they are working to restore services, especially electricity, to the area.
However, it is unclear which villages were involved or when they were taken over. This is probably the group of places reported to have been taken by Ukrainian forces last week.
In Poland and Turkey, Ukrainian refugees have voluntarily cleared local parks and roads to express their gratitude for being allowed into the country and to make it clear that they want to be “good guests”.
In a speech on Tuesday, Putin insisted that Russia had “no choice” but to attack Ukraine. He also indicated that Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are a “trinity nation” and that “greater integration” would be needed between Russia and Belarus. All this reinforces the idea that Putin is still planning to conquer all of Ukraine, and not just a fragment.
Belarusian dictator Lukashenko also addressed him to present what might be the strangest claim yet regarding Russia and its allies rejecting brutal war crimes in Bucha. According to Lukashenko, residents of Bucha were killed by British government special forces. He offered to provide the “car brands” in which the British forces arrived at Bucha.
In his speech, Putin also indicated that he did not believe there would be a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.